TED英語演講 | 為什麼我們需要想象不一樣的未來

TED與紀錄片2019-07-13 12:06:10

🕖 簡介

Why we need to imagine different futures

演講者Anab Jain | 亞娜·柏珍

語言:英語

簡介:亞娜·柏珍讓未來活了過來。她創造體驗,讓人們能夠觸摸、看見,以及感受到我們可能會造成的世界。比如,我們想要一個智慧機器巡邏街巷的世界嗎?或是一個由基因遺傳決定我們健康照護的世界?珍的專案呈現為我們想要的世界而戰何以重要。來這場讓人大開眼戒的演說,瞄一眼未來可能是什麼樣子。


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I visit the future for a living. Not just one future, but many possible futures, bringing back evidences from those futures for you to experience today. Like an archaeologist of the future. 

我靠訪問未來為生,不只是一個未來,而是許多可能存在的未來,為了讓今天的你來體驗這些來自未來的生活。就像未來的考古學家一樣。


Over the years, my many journeys have brought back things like a new species of synthetically engineered bees; a book named, "Pets as Protein;" a machine that makes you rich by trading your genetic data; a lamp powered by sugar; a computer for growing food.

多年來,我從我的旅程中帶回了許多東西,比如一種經過人工合成的蜜蜂新品種;一本名為《如同蛋白質的寵物》的書;一種通過交換基因數據使你變得富有的機器;一盞由糖供能的燈;一臺能生長糧食的電腦。


OK, so I don't actually travel to different futures -- yet. But my husband Jon and I spend a lot of time thinking and creating visions of different futures in our studio. We are constantly looking out for weak signals, those murmurs of future potential. Then we trace those threads of potential out into the future, asking: What might it feel like to live in this future? What might we see, hear and even breathe? 

好吧,我其實還沒有去過不同的未來。但我的丈夫喬恩與我花了很多時間思考,並在我們的工作室裡創造來自不同未來的景象,我們一直在尋找微弱的信號,那些由未來可能性發出的雜音。接著我們從這些潛在的線索追蹤到未來,然後發問:在這樣的未來生活會是種什麼感覺?我們能看到什麼,聽到什麼,甚至呼吸著什麼?


Then we run experiments, build prototypes, make objects, bringing aspects of these futures to life, making them concrete and tangible so you can really feel the impact of those future possibilities here and now. But this work is not about predictions. It's about creating tools -- tools that can help connect our present and our future selves so we become active participants in creating a future we want -- a future that works for all.

然後我們進行實驗,建立原型,製造物體,將這些未來的景象帶入生活,使他們變得具體而有形,從而能讓你在此時此地真切感受到潛在未來所帶來的影響。但這項工作並不是為了預測,而是為了創造一些工具——一些能幫助我們連接現在與未來的工具,讓我們成為積極的參與者,創造一個我們想要的未來——一個適合所有人的未來。


So how do we go about doing this? For a recent project called Drone Aviary, we were interested in exploring what it would mean to live with drones in our cities. Drones that have the power to see things we can't, to go places we can't and to do so with increasing autonomy. But to understand the technology, getting our hands dirty was crucial. 

那麼我們該怎麼做?最近有一個名叫鳥籠無人機(DroneAviary)的項目,我們非常有興趣去探究在我們的城市中與無人機生活意味著什麼?無人機能看到我們不能看到的事情,去我們不能去的地方,並且隨著自控能力的增強而主動這麼做。但想要了解這種技術,親力親為是至關重要的。


So we built several different drones in our studio. We gave them names, functions and then flew them -- but not without difficulty. Things came loose, GPS signals glitched and drones crashed. But it was through such experimentation that we could construct a very concrete and very experiential slice of one possible future.

於是我們在工作室裡製作了不同的無人機。我們給了它們起了名字,定義了功能,然後讓它們起飛——但這並不簡單。零件開始鬆動,GPS信號發生故障,接著一些無人機墜毀了。但正是通過這樣的實驗,我們才可以構建一個非常具體,非常有經驗性的潛在未來的一個片段。


So now, let's go to that future. Let's imagine we are living in a city with drones like this one. We call it The Nightwatchman. It patrols the streets, often spotted in the evenings and at night. Initially, many of us were annoyed by its low, dull hum. But then, like everything else, we got used to it. 

那麼,讓我們來看看這個未來,讓我們想象一下我們生活在一個擁有這樣的無人機的城市。我們把它叫做“守夜人”(TheNightwatchman),它在街上巡邏,經常在傍晚與午夜出沒。最初,許多人都為它產生的低沉、沉悶的嗡嗡聲所困擾。但隨後,就像其他東西一樣,我們漸漸習慣了。


Now, what if you could see the world through its eyes? See how it constantly logs every resident of our neighborhood; logging the kids who play football in the no-ballgame area and marking them as statutory nuisances.

如果你能透過它的眼睛看到這個世界呢?看看它是如何不斷地記錄我們周圍的每一個居民區;記錄著在無球區打橄欖球的孩子們,並將他們標記為法定的“妨害”。


And then see how it disperses this other group, who are teenagers, with the threat of an autonomously issued injunction. And then there's this giant floating disc called Madison. Its glaring presence is so overpowering, I can't help but stare at it. But if feels like each time I look at it, it knows a little more about me -- like it keeps flashing all these Brianair adverts at me, as if it knows about the holiday I'm planning. I'm not sure if I find this mildly entertaining or just entirely invasive.

然後看看它是如何自主地下達威脅禁令,驅散這個青少年群體。還有一個叫做麥迪遜(Madison)的巨大漂浮圓盤,它耀眼的存在是如此的強烈,我忍不住盯著它看。但是每次我看著它的時候,就感覺它更加了解我了——就像它不停地對我閃爍著這些飛行(Brianair)廣告,就好像它知道我正在計劃著假期。我不確定這是否算是適度地帶有娛樂性的行為,或只是具有侵略性的行為。


Back to the present. In creating this future, we learned a lot. Not just about how these machines work, but what it would feel like to live alongside them. Whilst drones like Madison and Nightwatchman, in these particular forms, are not real yet, most elements of a drone future are in fact very real today. 

回到現在,在創造這個未來的時候,,我們學到了很多,不只是這些機器如何運作,而且與他們一起生活是一種怎麼樣的感覺。同時像是麥迪遜(Madison)或者守夜人(Nightwatchman),還未以這種形式存在的時候,大多無人機的構成原理在現今都十分真實。


For instance, facial recognition systems are everywhere -- in our phones, even in our thermostats and in cameras around our cities -- keeping a record of everything we do, whether it's an  advertisement we glanced at or a protest we attended. These things are here, and we often don't understand how they work, and what their consequences could be. And we see this all around us. This difficulty in even imagining how the consequences of our actions today will affect our future.

比如,無處不在的面部識別系統——在我們的手機,甚至調溫器裡,還存在於城市裡隨處可見的攝像頭裡——都記錄下了我們所做的每一件事,無論是我們隨處一瞥的廣告還是參加的抗議活動。它們無處不在,而且我們時常不清楚他們是如何工作的,以及它們所帶來的後果。它們無處不在。很難想象我們今天行動的後果將如何影響我們的未來。


Last year, where I live, in the UK, therew as a referendum where the people could vote for the UK to leave the EU or stay in the EU, popularly known as "Brexit." And soon after the results came out, a word began to surface called "Bregret" --

去年,我住在英國的時候,那裡舉行了一次全民公投,那裡的人們可以投票支持英國脫離歐盟,或者留在歐盟,俗稱“英國脫歐”(Brexit)。結果出來後不久,一個單詞開始出現,叫做“英悔退歐”(Bregret)——


describing people who chose to vote for Brexit as a protest, but without thinking through its potential consequences. And this disconnect is evident in some of the simplest things. Say you go out for a quick drink. Then you decide you wouldn't mind a few more. You know you'll wake up in the morning feeling awful, but you justify it by saying, "The other me in the future will deal with that." But as we find out in the morning, that future "you" is you.

形容那些用抗議來選擇投票脫歐,但卻不考慮它的潛在後果的人。這種疏離在一些最簡單的事情上是顯而易見的。比如你出去喝了一杯,然後你決定再多喝幾杯也無所謂,你明白早上醒來會覺得很糟糕,但你卻為自己解釋,“未來的另一個我會處理好的。”但是正如我們早上所發現的,那個未來的“你”還是你。


When I was growing up in India in the late'70s and early '80s, there was a feeling that the future both needed to and could actually be planned. I remember my parents had to plan for some of the simplest things. When they wanted a telephone in our house, they needed to order it and then wait -- wait for nearly five years before it got installed in our house.

當我於70年代末,80年代初在印度長大,那時覺得未來需要並且實際上可以被計劃。我還記得我的父母不得不為一些最簡單的事情做計劃,當他們想要在家裡裝電話時,他們需要訂購,然後等待——等了將近五年才把它裝好。


And then if they wanted to call my grandparents who lived in another city, they needed to book something called a "trunk call," and then wait again, for hours or even days. And then abruptly, the phone would ring at two in the morning, and all of us would jump out of our beds and gather round the phone, shrieking into it, discussing general well-being at two in the morning.

然後如果他們想給住在另一個城市的祖父母打電話,他們需要預訂一種叫“長途電話”的東西,然後再等上幾個小時甚至幾天。接著突然,電話會在凌晨2點響起,而我們所有人都會從床上跳起來,圍著電話轉,在凌晨兩點的時候對著話筒大叫,討論一切如何安好。


Today it can feel like things are happening too fast -- so fast, that it can become really difficult for us to form an understanding of our place in history. It creates an overwhelming sense of uncertainty and anxiety, and so, we let the future just happen to us. We don't connect with that future "us." 

現今時常感覺事情發展得太快了——以至於我們很難對自己的歷史地位產生深刻的理解。它產生了一種壓倒性的不確定性與焦慮感,所以,我們選擇坐等著未來的到來。我們不會把未來的“我們”聯繫在一起。


We treat our future selves as a stranger, and the future as a foreign land. It's not a foreign land; it's unfolding right in front of us, continually being shaped by our actions today. We are that future, and so I believe fighting for a future we want is more urgent and necessary than ever before.

我們把未來的自己當作陌生人對待,而且把未來當作一片外國的土地。但它並不是外國的土地;它就在我們的眼前發展著,不斷被我們今天的行動所塑造。我們即是未來,所以我相信爭取我們所期望的未來,是一件比以往任何時候都更加緊迫與必要的事情。


We have learned in our work that one of the most powerful means of effecting change is when people can directly, tangibly and emotionally experience some of the future consequences of their actions today. Earlier this year, the government of the United Arab Emirates invited us to help them shape their country's energy strategy all the way up to 2050.Based on the government's econometric data, we created this large city model, and visualized many possible futures on it. 

我們在工作中學到了最有效的改變手段之一就是當人們可以直接地,真切地與有感情地去體驗他們今日的行動所帶來的一些後果的時候。今年早些時候,阿聯酋政府邀請我們去幫助他們塑造國家的能源戰略直到2050年。根據政府的計量經濟數據,我們建立了這個大城市的模型,並設想了許多可能存在的未來。


As I was excitably taking a group of government officials and members of energy companies through one sustainable future on our model, one of the participants told me, "I cannot imagine that in the future people will stop driving cars and start using public transport." And then he said, "There's no way I can tell my own son to stop driving his car."

正當我興奮地帶著一群政府官員與能源公司的成員,通過一個在我們的模型中可持續的未來的時候,其中一個參與者告訴我,"我無法想象未來人們會停止駕駛汽車,並開始使用公共交通工具。”然後他說,“我不可能告訴我的兒子讓他不要開車。


But we were prepared for this reaction. Working with scientists in a chemistry lab in my home city in India, we had created approximate samples of what the air would be like in 2030 if our behavior stays the same. And so, I walked the group over to this object that emits vapor from those air samples. 

但我們已經準備好了應對這種反應,我曾在我的家鄉印度的一個化學實驗室裡與科學家們一起工作,我們已經創造了接近似的空氣樣本,如果我們的行為保持不變,那麼2030年的空氣將會是什麼樣的,接著,我帶著這個小組到這個從這些空氣樣本中釋放出水汽的裝置前。


Just one whiff of the noxious polluted air from 2030 brought home the point that no amount of data can. This is not the future you would want your children to inherit. The next day, the government made a big an nouncement. They would be investing billions of dollars inrenew ables. We don't know what part our future experiences played in this decision, but we know that they've changed their energy policy to mitigate such a scenario.

只吸入了一點點來自2030年的惡性汙染的空氣,就清楚地展現了無法用數據表達的重點。這不是你希望你的孩子們繼承的未來。次日,政府宣佈了一項重大聲明,他們將在可再生能源上投資數十億美元,我們不知道是哪些未來的體驗在這個決定中會發揮了作用,但是我們知道他們為了緩和這種情況已經改變了能源政策。


While something like air from the future is very effective and tangible, the trajectory from our present to a future consequence is not always so linear. Even when a technology is developed with utopian ideals, the moment it leaves the laboratory and enters the world, it is subject to forces outside of the creators' control. 

雖然像未來的空氣這樣的指標是非常有效和切實的,但從現在到未來的發展軌跡並非是一直是線性的,即使一種技術是朝著烏托邦式的理想來發展,但在它離開實驗室的那一刻並進入世界時,便會受到創作者之外的力量所控制。


For one particular project, we investigated medical genomics: the technology of gathering and using people's genetic data to create personalized medicine. We were asking: What are some of the unintended consequences of linking our genetics to health care? To explore this question further, we created a fictional lawsuit, and brought it to life through 31 pieces of carefully crafted evidence. So we built an illegal genetic clinic, a DIY carbon dioxide incubator, and even bought frozen mice one Bay.

對於一個特定的項目,我們調查了醫療基因組學:是一種收集與使用人類基因數據的技術用來創造個人化醫療。我們發問:將我們的基因與醫療保健聯繫起來會產生什麼樣的意想不到的後果?再進一步探索這個問題,我們創造了一個虛構的訴訟案件,並通過31件細心製作的證據實現了它。所以我們建立了一個非法的基因診所,一個手工製作的二氧化碳培養箱,接著甚至在eBay上買了一隻凍老鼠。


So now let's go to that future where this lawsuit is unfolding, and meet the defendant, Arnold Mann. Arnold is being prosecuted by this global giant biotech company called Dynamic Genetics, because they have evidence that Arnold has illegally inserted the company's patented genetic material into his body. 

現在我們來看看這個訴訟正在發生的未來,讓我們來認識一下被告,阿諾德·曼。阿諾德正被這家叫做“動態遺傳”的大型跨國生物科技公司起訴。因為他們有證據證明阿諾德把公司的專利基因材料非法植入了他的身體。


How on earth did Arnold manage to do that? Well, it all started when Arnold was asked to submit a saliva sample in this spit kit to the NHI -- the UK's National Health Insurance service. When Arnold received his health insurance bill, he was shocked and scared to see that his premiums had gone through the roof, beyond anything he or his family could ever afford.

阿諾德到底是怎麼做到的?其實,這一切都是在阿諾德被要求在這個唾液工具箱中提交唾液樣本到NHI的時候開始的——即國民健康保險。當阿諾德收到他的健康保險賬單時,他感到震驚和害怕看到他的天價保險費,已經遠遠超出了他與他的家庭能夠支付得起的限度。


The state's algorithm had scanned his genetic data and found the risk of a chronic health condition lurking in his DNA. And so Arnold had to start paying toward the potential costs of that future disease -- potential future disease from today. In that moment of fear and panic, Arnold slipped through the city into the dark shadows of this illegal clinic for treatment -- a treatment that would modify his DNA so that the state's algorithm would no longer see him as a risk, and his insurance premiums would become affordable again. But Arnold was caught. And the legal proceedings in the case Dynamic Genetics v. Mann began.

國家的演算系統掃描了他的基因數據,並發現了在他的DNA中有潛伏慢性健康疾病的風險。所以阿諾德不得不從今開始向未來的疾病支付潛在的預算——向這種未來可能存在的疾病。在充滿恐懼和恐慌的那一刻,阿諾德從城裡溜了出來融入了這個非法診所的黑暗陰影裡——為了找到可以改變他DNA的治療,這樣一來,國家的演算系統,就不再認為他是一個風險,而且他也能負擔得起他的保險費了。但是阿諾德被抓住了。接著他與動態遺傳公司的訴訟開始了。


In bringing such a future to life, what was important to us was that people could actually touch, see and feel it spotential, because such an immediate and close encounter provokes people to ask the right questions, questions like: What are the implications of living in a world where I'm judged on my genetics? 

當把這樣的未來帶入到生活中時,對我們來說,人們可以觸摸到,看到與感覺到這種可能性是很重要的。因為這種密切相關的接觸會驅使人們去問正確的問題,就像:生活在一個從基因來判斷自我的世界意味著什麼?


Or: Who might claim ownership to my genetic data, and what might they do with it? If this feels even slightly out-there or farfetched, today there's a little-known bill being passed through the American congress known as HR 1313, Preserving Employee Wellness Programs Act. 

或是誰擁有我的基因數據的所有權,並且他們會用它做什麼?如果這個感覺有點遙遠,或者是牽強,實際上就在今天,美國國會通過了一項鮮為人知的法案,通稱HR1313,員工健康保留計劃法案。


This bill proposes to amend the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act, popularly known as GINA, and would allow employers to ask about family medical history and genetic data to all employees for the first time. Those who refuse would face large penalties.

該法案提議修改基因信息非歧視法案,俗稱GINA,它並且首次允許僱主詢問所有員工的家庭病史與遺傳數據。那些拒絕的人將面臨巨大的懲罰,


In the work I've shown so far, whether it was drones or genetic crimes, these stories describe troubling futures with the intention of helping us avoid those futures. But what about what we can't avoid? Today, especially with climate change, it looks like we are heading for trouble. And so what we want to do now is to prepare for that future by developing tools and attitudes that can help us find hope -- hope that can inspire action.

在我所展示的作品中,不管是無人機還是基因犯罪,這些故事都描述了令人不安的未來,而目的是幫助我們避免這些未來。但那些我們不能避免的呢?現今,尤其是氣候變化問題,看來我們要有麻煩了。所以我們現在要做的就是為未來做準備,通過開發工具與轉變態度來幫助我們找到希望——可以激起行動的希望。 


Currently, we are running an experiment in our studio. It's a work in progress. Based on climate data projections, we are exploring a future where the Western world has moved from abundance to scarcity. We imagine living in a future city with repeated flooding, periods with almost no food in supermarkets, economic instabilities, broken supply chains. What can we do to not just survive, but prosper in such a world? What food can we eat?

目前,我們的工作室開展了一項實驗,這是一項正在進行中的工作。基於氣候數據預測,我們正在探索那個西方世界已經從富足到匱乏的未來。我們想象著生活在一個不斷遭遇洪水的未來城市裡,超市裡經常缺少食物,經濟不穩定,商品供應鏈已經崩潰。我們需要做的不僅僅是生存,而是在這樣的一個世界裡繁榮。我們能吃什麼食物?


To really step inside these questions, we are building this room in a flat in London from 2050. It's like a little time capsule that we reclaimed from the future. We stripped it down to the bare minimum. Everything we lovingly put in our homes, like flat-panel TVs, internet-connected fridges and artisanal furnishings all had to go. 

要真正介入這些問題中,我們在倫敦的一間公寓裡建造了這個從2050年的房間,這就像一個我們從未來中回收的小型時間膠囊。我們把它的容量儘可能縮小,為了打造一個溫馨的家而佈置的一切,像平板電視,智能冰箱,和手工傢俱都要搬走。


And in its place, we're building food computers from abandoned, salvaged and repurposed materials, turning today's waste into tomorrow's dinner. For instance, we've just finished building our first fully automated fogponics machine. It uses the technique of fogponics -- so just fog as a nutrient, not even water or soil --to grow things quickly. At the moment, we have successfully grown tomatoes. But we'll need more food than what we can grow in this small room. So what else could we forage from the city? Insects? Pigeons? Foxes?

在它的空間裡,我們正在從廢棄的、回收的和改造的材料中建造食物電腦,把今天的廢品變成明天的晚餐。比如,我們剛剛完成了我們的第一個全自動的霧化機。它使用了霧化的技術——只用霧作為一種養分,甚至不用水或土壤——來培育糧食。目前,我們已經成功的種植了西紅柿。但是我們需要的食物比我們在這個小房間裡能生長的還要多,那麼我們還能從城市中尋找什麼呢?昆蟲?鴿子?狐狸?


Earlier, we brought back air from the future. This time we are bringing an entire room from the future, a room full of hope, tools and tactics to create positive action in hostile conditions. Spending time in this room, a room that could be our own future home, makes the consequences of climate change and food insecurity much more immediate and tangible.

早些時候,我們從未來帶回了空氣。這次我們將從未來帶來一個完整的房間,一個充滿希望、工具和戰術的房間,用來在惡性的環境中創造出正確的行動。在這樣的房間裡呆上一會兒,一個可以成為我們未來家園的房間,能使氣候變化和食物缺乏的後果更加直接和切實。


What we're learning through such experiments and our practice and the people we engage with is that creating concrete experiences can bridge the disconnect between today and tomorrow. By putting ourselves into different possible futures, by becoming open and willing to embrace the uncertainty and discomfort that such an act can bring, we have the opportunity to imagine new possibilities. 

我們通過這些實驗和實踐,以及與我們接觸的人們學到的是,創造具體的體驗可以跨越今天和明天的鴻溝。通過把自己放到未來不同的可能性中,通過轉變為坦率和樂意去接受這種行為所帶來的不確定性和不適,我們就有機會去想象新的可能性。


We can find optimistic futures; we can find paths forward; we can move beyond hope into action. It means we have the chance to change direction, a chance to have our voices heard, a chance to write ourselves into a future we want. Other worlds are possible.

我們可以找到樂觀的未來;我們可以找到前進的路;我們可以把希望變成行動。這意味著我們有改變未來的機會,一個讓我們的聲音被聽到機會,一個把自己寫進我們想要的未來的機會。另外的世界是充滿可能的。


Thank you.(Applause)

謝謝。(掌聲)



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